Fieldnote

Notes

Longer pieces, roughly newest first. No schedule.

Percentiles lie about tails

May 2026 · 9 min

A p95 is a summary of the part of the distribution you were already watching. When the interesting failure lives past p99, tracking p95 tells you almost nothing — and it will look reassuringly stable while it happens.

Sampling a signal you cannot pause

April 2026 · 6 min

Every probe costs something. If the probe itself perturbs the system, interval choice stops being a statistics question and becomes a budget question.

Two points beat one

March 2026 · 4 min

A single timing includes fixed overhead you cannot see. Two measurements of different sizes let you subtract it out: the slope is the answer, the intercept is the noise you were about to publish.

Averages of ratios

February 2026 · 5 min

Averaging per-request rates and computing a rate from totals give different numbers. One of them is usually the one you meant. Worked example with sum(x)/sum(t) versus mean(x/t).